How you just lost money in a stock market that's up 40% August 5, 2009
Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Money, Personal Productivity, Self Directed IRA Solo 401k , add a comment
Headlines abound, the stock market is up 40% from its March lows!!! Let’s all celebrate. Those who spoke badly of Obama, Bernanke, and Geithner have their foots in their mouths, right?
Not even close. These types of misleading headlines are the very weaponry of a financial system that tricks you, lures you, spikes your drink, robs you blind while you’re partying, and then nurses you back to sobriety in the morning by giving you another spiked drink.
Imagine you have $100 in the stock market. You experience a 40% loss. You now have $60. And, abracadabra, the economic rescuers have juiced the market back up 40%. You now have $84. Wait a tick, how exactly do I get back to $100? Well to recover from a 40% loss, you would need a 67% gain. You see, 40% of $60 is much less than 40% of $100, so the initial 40% loss was much larger than the 40% gain that followed. For those whose livelihood involves serious math, this is very obvious. For the rest of us, it should be an “ah ha” moment that exposes the red arrow, green arrow game.
Watching and listening to the financial news networks report about the stock market is like watching a sports game. And it entertains just like a sports game. In the midst of entertaining, it lulls us into watching the red and green arrows. Oh, it’s down today a few points. Hey look, it came back up. It feels very much like watching a basketball team surrender and regain the lead in a basketball game. If they are down by 40 points, and then they score 41 uncontested points, they have the lead and they win the game!
But it doesn’t work the same in percentage points. But just wait, over the long term the losses will be recovered and there will be profit, say the “experts” whose payroll checks are signed by Wall Street. If you buy that line of baloney, you will be further tricked. Because over the long term those losses will be recovered and there will be profits… but only as measured in dollars. If you factor in how over the long term those dollars buy less stuff, you will not find a substantial long-term profit.
Today the Dow closed at $9,320. But the dollar has lost over 96% of its purchasing power since 1913. Take 96% out of today’s Dow price and you get $372. In 1913, the Dow was at about $62. So the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew from $62 to $372 (in constant 1913 dollars) over a period of 96 years. That’s an annualized rate of return of 1.88%.
This bears repeating…
The Dow Jones has returned 1.88% per year for the past 96 years
Can you still get excited about a stock market that’s up 40% since its March lows when it is still a stock market that hasn’t even been able to produce an actual 2.00% return over the long run?
Or even more important questions: Is it worth the risk of losing a big chunk of the money you worked for just to “get some action” in a market that produces less than a 2.00% return over the long run? When you are down, can you wait decades without touching your money just to get back to your break-even point?
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Jeff Nabers is author of 5 STEPS TO FREEDOM: How to Cut Your Dependence on Institutions and Escape Financial Slavery
This January was worst for stock market in 113 years February 22, 2009
Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Money , add a comment
According to the article The Market Is Shorting Obama’s ‘Stimulus’, we’ve just had the worst January in over 113 years of the stock market. Professors of Finance, Ecomonics, and Law at the University of Kansas and George Mason University report that the stock market is not impressed by Obama’s stimulus. Read the whole story here.
While 99% of the stories out there that use logic and reason to argue (more…)
The Roth Assumption May 15, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Money, Self Directed IRA Solo 401k , add a commentWe all have that friend who is financially irresponsible. You know, they have a new cell phone every time one comes out. They lease a brand new car every 2 years. Their credit cards are maxed out. And they don’t really have a game plan on how to pay for the stuff they have. The best I can tell is that our government is kind of like that. If you look at the timeline, all major tax changes result in increased taxation. Let’s just look at what happened with Social Security:
- In 1935, the Social Security Act was passed, and the Social Security benefits systems was created. Benefits were not to be taxed.
- In 1937, FICA began payroll taxes of 2% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
- In 1950, payroll taxes were raised to 3% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
- In 1956, payroll taxes were raised to 4% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
- In 1972, payroll taxes were raised to 9.2% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
- In 1977, payroll taxes were raised to 9.9% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
- In 1983, payroll taxes were raised to 10.8% in order to fund the payout of SS benefits.
- Starting in 1984, up to 50% of an individual’s or couple’s Social Security benefits were (more…)
Grading Promoters – Fairpointe… B May 1, 2008
Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Self Directed IRA Solo 401k , add a commentI ran across a site advertised on Google today – www.coloradodeedsoftrust.com – run by a company called Fairpointe. This post is just my initial opinion from reviewing their web site. I haven’t spoken with or met these people or anyone who has done business with them. Once I have I will post an update.
Fairpointe offers self directed IRA investors the ability to invest in deeds of trust for properties in Colorado. A deed of trust is essentially a mortgage. Fairpointe’s site says in one place that the minimum investment amount is $25,000, while in another place they claim it’s $50,000. Either way, I immediately can respect what they are promoting more than those who promote putting all your retirement funds into one or two pieces of real estate through direct ownership. They also seem to allow, possibly encourage, forming an investment group so that each investor can invest a smaller amount which allows for diversification. I like the sound of that.
In the past, I’ve run across self directed IRA/401k promoters who really bash the stock market. Usually it’s in a very emotional way that just comes across as a cheap shot, and those people lose credibility in my book. Now, Fairpointe on the other hand does oppose the stock market, but in an interesting way. They point out what I believe to be the single misunderstood fact about numbers, math, money and investing. In fact, I think that the securities industry would not exist if everyone understood this concept:
Lying averages
Ever heard the phrase “numbers don’t lie”? Oh, yes they do. If 4 different investment portfolios each start at the same time, start with the same amount of principal, experience different gains/losses each year, but have the same average return during a period of time, would they perform the same during that period of time? No.
While many people believe (more…)
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