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Turn Doom & Gloom into Personal Boom October 20, 2008

Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Money, Personal Enjoyment, Precious Metals, real estate, Self Directed IRA Solo 401k , add a comment

There are 3 economies to pay attention to:

  1. Your Personal Economy. This is the one that really matters. The life you will share with your family and friends will be directly impacted by your finances.
  2. The People’s Economy. This is the wealth of communities of people. You could look at it in terms of the American public as a whole or separated into demographic or geographic categories.
  3. The Financial Institutions’ Economy. This is the wealth of the people who own banks and financial services companies.

Right now, the financial institutions’ economy is doing quite poorly as a result of foolish decisions. Financial services companies created and bought debt that was not repayable. They packaged investment products in a way so complex not even Warren Buffet could understand them. The Fed has decided to defer and worsen the consequences of their inflationary monetary policy… and now “the economy” is crumbling before our eyes… but which economy is it?

Although often not fulfilled, there is clear potential for your personal economy to be completely separate from the financial institutions’ economy. Your wealth can (more…)

Lunch at the Fed August 22, 2008

Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Money, real estate, Self Directed IRA Solo 401k , add a comment

I recently attended a lunch discussion at the Fed building here in Denver hosted by the World Trade Center. The topic of discussion: The outlook for the U.S. Dollar.

First, a Federal Reserve senior economist gave us an overview of what Fed is and how it works. Surprisingly, he was quite direct and open about Fed’s control over increasing & decreasing the money supply by simply deciding to buy or sell “government securities” from or to its member banks. (If everyone would have grasped that statement fully, the “forecasting” of USD activity would have been unnecessary.)

The floor was then passed to Russ Root, ForEx advisor at Amegy Bank. He mentioned PPI (Producer Price Index), aka “pipeline inflation”, being around 9.2%. He made some comments about Fed chairman Bernanke currently asking Congress to consolidate & fortify Fed’s powers. I understand Fed’s job is essentially to attempt to rid America of the economic cycle, thus making all our lives recession/depression-free. Economically speaking, this is impossible when operating a system on fiat currency. So, each time a new Fed chairman gets appointed, he has failed at his task before starting it. For this reason, word of Bernanke asking for “more powers” is alarming. It’s like losing a game of blackjack and doubling your bet after each loss… throwing more money or power after a losing game is a silly thing.

Mr. Root described the situation with the dollar as “the race to the bottom”. To summarize his message, “we win”. We’ve won the race to the bottom, and his bet is on a stronger dollar over the next 18 months. Oddly enough, he didn’t explain why or how the dollar’s rebound will occur beyond the logic of “what goes down must come up”. It’s not a surprising prediction considering the venue.

Beyond my thirst for knowledge relating to fully understanding money, my reason for attending this meeting was to consider joining the World Trade Center. Contrary to common awareness, the WTC is more than just a pair of buildings that toppled in Manhattan. It’s actually an association of individuals and companies involved in international trade. This interests me because I believe there are countless strong investment opportunities outside our borders. Most of the attendees of this lunch meeting were WTC members.

One WTC member posed the question, “The 30 year bond should be at 13%. How long will these other countries keep propping us up?” His concern wasn’t exactly addressed. I mean whoever does know “how long these other countries will keep propping us up” is going to become a rich (or richer) man applying that knowledge and keeping quiet. Of course, this was really more of a comment about his concern that our financial circumstances are currently highly dependent on foreign countries. I haven’t yet decided whether to join WTC. I am primarily looking to connect with international real estate brokers who can facilitate transactions in South America and Asia. Suggestions in comments appreciated.

Does the weak dollar make foreign real estate a bad investment? August 7, 2008

Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Money, real estate, Self Directed IRA Solo 401k , add a comment

In a recent meeting with a couple of real estate investors, I was posed with the question:

Doesn’t the weak dollar eat into the profit of foreign real estate investing?

Not at all; in fact, quite the contrary. A weak dollar makes spending dollars in foreign countries disadvantageous. I ran into this a few years ago in Sweden. I went to buy a t-shirt and it cost the equivalent of $85 USD. I asked my Swedish friend if this shirt was expensive, and he replied “no”. That’s when I learned firsthand that the plummeting dollar is making international vacationing more expensive for Americans.

Spending money on foreign real estate

The same does apply to real estate purchase for personal use. If you find a beautiful property in a foreign country that you’d like to buy for personal use, it’s going to cost a lot more today than it did 5 years ago. You’re spending US dollars and you’re going to have to spend a lot more now since they are worth less thanks to inflation.

Investing money in foreign real estate

Investment into real estate is done to accomplish one or both of the following objectives:

  1. Produce [Rental] Income – I believe this should be the primary objective of any investment. Income is more predicable and controllable than appreciation.
  2. Appreciation / Capital Gains – This is the focus of most novice investors.

When investing in foreign real estate, you convert the appropriate amount of US Dollars into local currency, and you will purchase the property in local currency. Regardless of whether you receive your return on investment from #1 above, #2 above or both… you will receive it in local currency. If you buy property in Sweden, you will receive rental income in kronor (Swedish crowns) and proceeds from the sale of the property will also be in Swedish crowns.

Scenario 1. If the dollar is weak (relative to its historic value), but its value remains constant during your ownership of the Swedish property, your return-on-investment (ROI) will be unaffected by the dollar’s weakness.

Scenario 2. If the dollar is weak, and it continues to weaken during your ownership of the Swedish property, your ROI in Swedish crowns will remain unaffected, but in USD your ROI will be increased.

Scenario 3. If the dollar is weak, but it rebounds and strengthens in value during your ownership of the Swedish property, in USD your ROI will suffer. The dollar can only bounce back if the Fed completely reverses its monetary policy. In this case, interest rates will go up to 13% – 20%, and the entire US economy will essentially crash. Here there will be so many opportunities that as long as you didn’t put your entire investment portfolio into the Swedish property, riding the bear market down in short positions will more than compensate for the lessened ROI on the Swedish property.

Weakening dollar makes domestic real estate investment a bad idea

The weakened dollar has hurt real estate in the last 2 years. During this time, inflation has been at 10% – 12%, while housing values have been stagnant or even declined in some localities. This means all our homes have decreased in actual value 10%+.
If you believe interest rates will remain low and that Fed will continue its inflationary policies, investing in U.S. real estate might not carry a very good ROI. If your property is returning you 12% annually, but inflation is at 12%… you have successfully stored and protected your wealth, but you have not grown it. The continued weakening dollar will hurt domestic real estate unless real estate appreciation outpaces inflation. Using the increasing money supply as a forecaster, inflation is heading towards 16%. I don’t think real estate values (or rents) will increase by 16% per year over the next few years, so this tells me that while our inflation continues, domestic real estate investment performance [in general] will suffer.

Summary

Concepts to consider

LLC Registration – Choosing a state May 7, 2008

Posted by Jeff Nabers in : Self Directed IRA Solo 401k , add a comment

For many small businesses forming an LLC in your home state is the simplest and most convenient option. An LLC that does business in a state other than where it was initially registered must register as a “foreign LLC” (foreign meaning from a different state, not a different country) with the state in which it conducts business.

When an LLC is registered with a state, a registered agent must be named. This is the person or corporation designated to accept official documents on behalf of the LLC. This person or corporation must reside in the state of formation. If you are registering an LLC in a state in which you don’t reside, you’ll need to choose a person or corporation residing in that state to serve as your registered agent. There are many companies who provide a registered agent service for a nominal fee.

There are advantages to choosing certain states in which to initially register your LLC. Many large corporations choose to form an LLC in Delaware because (more…)